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ICICI Securities Report
The latest report on global gas markets by the International Energy Agency provides interesting insights. Takeaways:
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Post a decline of 1.5% YoY in global demand in CY22, CY23 returned to growth of 0.5% YoY.
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CY24 may see stronger momentum with 2.5% YoY growth driven by Asia pacific, Middle East and Africa.
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Supply growth keeps pace, mainly driven by U.S Liquefied Natural Gas exports, with the expansion of key offtake pipelines to support growth.
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Overall LNG trade may rise by 3.5% YoY (~13.7 million tonne) in CY24, with Africa becoming a major contributor.
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Geopolitical risks weigh heavily on these estimates and create material downside risks.
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Prices to remain moderate, with Dutch TTF and JKM Asia LNG prices for CY24 forecast at $ 10/metric million british thermal unit and $ 11/metric million british thermal unit, respectively.
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